For once Paul McGinley’s all-weather smile, as much a part of the genial Irishman as a sharp two-piece suit is to a city lawyer, was absent. Instead there were fidgety taps of his fingers and a twitchy pawing at his nose - classic indicators of stress. And all because Europe’s Ryder Cup captain was announcing his three wildcard picks in his team to face the United States: Ian Poulter, Stephen Gallacher and Lee Westwood.
Unsurprisingly, McGinley admitted it had been a “very, very, very difficult” decision to leave out near-misses such as Luke Donald and Francesco Molinari – and said he had trusted his “captain’s instinct”.
Meanwhile Tom Watson, the captain of the US team, also spoke in vaguely mystical tones after choosing Keegan Bradley, Hunter Mahan and Webb Simpson as his wildcards. “It came to me this morning . . . I kind of had a revelation,” he said about picking Simpson. “I took a look the last time the Ryder Cup was played and I just realised Webb was the guy.”
Instinct. Revelation. These are not words that golfing analysts - who make a living from tracking and analysing every crumb of data about each player and course - entertain when assessing the likelihood of someone doing well in a tournament. Then again, the Ryder Cup is different: physically, structurally, even spiritually.
We all know why. It is matchplay not strokeplay. Four of the five rounds – played over three slog-long days - are in pairs. One horrible shot in a 72-hole tournament can irreparably wreck your chances of success; in the Ryder Cup it costs just the hole. And the players are not representing themselves and their sponsors but a country or continent. It makes some puff their chests - and others to shrivel in stature. No wonder the usual rules of analysing who is likely to do well don’t always apply.
As Sky Bet golf manager John Rhodes puts it: “Normally current form is the most important thing when analysing someone’s chances at a tournament. In my database I particularly focus on how everyone has played in the last 12-13 weeks. You soon spot patterns. You also look at anything else that might change the prices – especially course form and which country or region a player is from. For instance on the west coast the greens are very different to say Florida, so certain players who do well on the east coast are not always so good out west.”
Of McGinley’s three wildcard picks, only Gallacher ticks the typical boxes of a likely tournament winner. He is in form, having finished in the top 20 in five of his last seven tournaments before being picked, and only missed out on automatic Ryder Cup selection by one shot after finishing third in the Italian Open. He also has an impressive record at Gleneagles: his last five strokeplay results are second (2013), sixth (2012), sixth (2011), 14th (2010) and 10th (2008).
Compare and contrast with Poulter, whose last six tournament results before his Ryder Cup squad was announced were: missed cut – missed cut – tied-52 - tied 58 – missed cut – tied 23rd, and has only two top-10 finishes all year. Meanwhile Westwood missed four straight cuts during the summer – including at the US Open and Open Championship – although he did finish tied 15th in the USPGA after a last round 63.
Yet hardly anyone quibbled with the selection of Poulter, simply because everyone knows the Ryder Cup morphs him into a different beast. He has an astonishing 12-3 win/loss record, an 80% success rate – more than double that of Tiger Woods, whose record of 13 wins, three ties and 17 defeats is wretched.
Poulter’s performances also match favourably to most of the great Europeans in recent Ryder Cup history: only Jose Maria Olazabal, whose record is 18 wins, eight ties and three defeats, Sergio Garcia (16-8-4) and Seve Ballesteros (20-12-5) come close.You suspect it wouldn’t matter if he was topping balls like a once-a-year Sunday hacker in the months before the Ryder Cup: the sight of the European flag works better than any swing doctor in reviving his game.
The most contentious of McGinley’s three picks was Westwood, whose overall Ryder Cup record of 18 wins, six ties and 13 defeats, is not as good as Donald (10 wins, one tie, four defeats). Donald also has the better short game and putting, and his partnership with Sergio Garcia in the foursomes and fourballs has been remarkably successful – five wins and just one defeat.
Yet these are wafer-thin decisions: Donald has not had a top-30 finish since April, and doesn’t seem the player he was since remodelling his swing at the end of last year. There is no guarantee his form would return at Gleneagles – although, then again, you could argue the same about Poulter.
And what of the American wildcards? Again there has been the odd quibble with Watson’s selections but there is a teak-solid case for all of them. Mahan won the world matchplay in 2012 and was a runner-up in 2013, and showed strong recent form in winning The Barclays in New Jersey in August. Bradley is a little wild, but he does make plenty of birdies as he showed in winning three of his four matches in Medinah in 2012, and appears a natural fit with Phil Mickelson.
And while some disagreed with Watson picking Simpson over recent US Tour winner Chris Kirk – you can see why: Simpson is a major champion with previous Ryder Cup experience and had nine top-10 finishes in 2014 before his selection. He should also pair up well again with Bubba Watson, who he won two from two with in Medinah in 2012. Kirk, for all his talent, would have also been the fourth rookie on the US team.
As Bet 365 gold trader Phil Quayle explains: “Bradley is a very gung-ho player who seems to ruin rounds with one or two really bad holes a day but the Ryder Cup is a good format for hiding that trait. Mahan won recently and his all-round stats have been very good. The last pick of Simpson was probably the closest call on both teams. He is similar to Molinari in that his all-round game is very good. He just doesn’t putt too well, but that’s not as important in match play when you are just trying to win a hole and not put up 16 under par for four rounds.”
Of course the selection of wildcards is not a precise science. Captains are not just frisking recent results and other data but also trying to assess the vast array of elements that will help them create that just-right blend of experience, harmony, desire, steadiness and streakiness and overwhelming will to win in their 12-man teams.
Is it any wonder, then, that McGinley decided to partially trust his instincts – and Watson fell back on the power of revelation?
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