Madagascar 3’s ‘success’ proves box office figures are a tricky animal

Still from Madagascar 3 — Party time? A still from Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted, which topped the US box office chart this week Photograph: PR

Industry observers called it a strong session over the weekend, soothing the latest case of high anxiety among Hollywood executives. After a couple of supposedly shaky box office weekends in this early summer season, the ongoing antics of Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted's dopey zoo fugitives and Ridley Scott's Prometheus combined to help hammer the comparable box office weekend from 2011. Back in that 10-12 June session, JJ Abrams' Super 8 opened at number one on $35.5m. This weekend brought in more money overall, so studio top brass can chant "Ner ner ner ner ner", cock a snook at the ghost of a year ago, and focus on fretting about next weekend.

Our friends in the studio distribution sector thrive on such comparisons. This illustrates the climate of fear and misinformation that endures in Hollywood. Studio top brass trumpet unfair data points and swear by notoriously opaque charts that fail to provide truly meaningful references – at least to those of us on the outside. Each week, new releases are compared to year-ago opening weekend results that are unadjusted for inflation. No attempt is made to assess true profitability, by looking at the cost of production and marketing versus the estimated gross. No effort is made to adjust for release patterns of varying scale and nature. And nobody seems to care that the movies being weighed up against each other often hail from different genres.

This weekend was a success, we are told, because Paramount happened to release DreamWorks Animation's third entry in its world-famous Madagascar family series in 4,258 theatres and audiences shelled out an estimated $60.4m, while Fox opened the R-rated sci-fi Prometheus, which opened in 3,396 screens and took a reported $50m. The two releases combined for $110.4m and devoured the performance of the top two movies on release in the same weekend in 2011, when X-Men: First Class took second place to Abrams' relatively modest sci-fi project. Those two movies together grossed $59.6m and yet this shouldn't be a badge of shame. Madagascar 3 is odds-on to gross more than Super 8 but there's no guarantee Prometheus will far outstrip the $146.4m final tally of X-Men: First Class.

As is common practice in Hollywood, these figures will become part of the tool kit studio executives use to shape financial forecasts, report earnings to analysts (and journalists), and determine whether or not to greenlight sequels. While this column owes its existence to Hollywood's weekly data – flawed as it is – and uses every bit of information the studios provide, that doesn't mean we have to be satisfied with it. The problem with the year-on-year comparisons that play out each weekend is that they create a trigger-happy tendency to fuss over, and report in public, the minutiae of each week, rather than pay attention to the more macro seasonal or annual forecast.

I don't deny the positive effect on morale when box office records are broken and it gives trade journalists an easy headline, but we must brace ourselves for when the opposite occurs and, in either case, try to resist kneejerk pronouncements about the health of the business. This summer there will be the usual parade of slam-dunk blockbusters, shocking flops and heart-warming breakouts, but the movie industry will stand or fall on the ongoing commercial appeal of its product. Hollywood would do well to accept the dwindling authority of theatrical releasing and embrace new digital models for production, marketing and distribution.

Oh, and if this or that studio is so proud of being part of a "bigger" weekend, it would be fun to watch them embrace their vulgarity openly and name the vanquished movies of yesteryear when they report the numbers. Just so long as they don't forget to publicly hang their heads in shame when they experience a reverse.