It has been billed as the year's biggest blockbuster turkey, an overblown mess of a space fantasy with a bloated $300m budget, but it seems Disney's John Carter may not be set to haemorrhage money after all.
Bad box-office buzz for Andrew Stanton's adaptation of Edgar Rice Burroughs' novel, A Princess of Mars, began when it debuted with just $35m in the US at the weekend. Most analysts still predict the film could lose more than $150m for Disney, but expert Tony Wible of Janney Montgomery Scott sees a different scenario. Highlighting the film's strong performance in non-US markets, where it has so far taken $70m, as well as potential for DVD and download sales, he believes the movie might easily lose just $50m in total, or even make a profit.
"We have been tracking each of Disney's films since 2005 in our database, which helps us analyse the potential fallout from John Carter," Wible wrote in an investor note revealed in the Hollywood Reporter. "While [Wall] Street is anticipating a large impairment on the film, our analysis shows the impairment may not be as bad as feared if the film tracks in line with average performance ratios seen in 2011."
Meanwhile, a Facebook group has called for Disney to stick to its original plans and produce a sequel to Oscar-winning director Stanton's film. The group, Take Me Back to Barsoom! I Want John Carter to Have a Sequel!, indicates there is strong word of mouth for the film, though only 1,360 people have so far joined.
Member Skip Beery used the group's wall to call for fans to turn out in large numbers to give the film a boost in its second week at the box office, having opened only in second place behind The Lorax in the US. "If you guys or girls wish to have a sequel for this film then John Carter needs to take the No 1 spot this weekend, as it will shake off the stigma that John Carter is a flop," he wrote.
Enthusiasm for the group's efforts was not universal, even among members. "We can turn it around with good word of mouth!" wrote Julian Perez in response to Beery's post, before adding a few minutes later: "Although … I kinda want to see 21 Jump Street, though."
