How important is the net?
It isn't the revolution talked about six or seven years ago. There are products that are well delivered via the net - travel, financial services, entertainment. That is different from the idea that this is going to be a primary form of retailing, which it isn't. The net is the most effective form of classified advertising and it will gradually take over from local regional newspapers and the trade press. It's also a vast reference and library tool.
More government online?
There are two aspects; one is can you file your tax returns online, which will happen. The other - pure fantasy - is you create vast democracies online that change the nature of political activity.
Do governments understand the net?
No one really does _ people talk in general terms and are hard to pin down to specifics. In the short-term, things generally change less than you think and in the long-term, more.
Were you an early adopter?
As soon as IBM brought out its PCs, we economists understood it was going to win, whereas all the techies were disparaging. The paradox was that IBM would set the standard for the industry while destroying its existing market position. When IBM was defending an anti-trust suit, it explained that it wasn't really dominant because the distinction between what could be done by mainframes and by desktops was diminishing and would disappear.
And the Microsoft anti-trust case?
It's a story of disciplined pluralism being the mainstay of a market economy. The idea that any firm - be it IBM or Microsoft - has a major influence over the development of a market is very worrying. It's inherently bad. That's why I'm on the side of the "Bash Microsoft" people. In my book, I use the PC industry as an example of disciplined pluralism. That's how this industry came into being - the company making the breakthrough was Xerox. It built the first functioning desktop and invented the graphical user interface. It had the key idea that for computers to take off, you had to have machines that did not require you to understand computers in order to use them. It made nothing from either of those ideas.
Can websites keep books topical?
Not yet but maybe one day. People want electronic devices that look and feel more and more like a book and, if that's the case, then the future lies in the same place as the past! What I keep thinking is that the real future of this lies in things that are intermediate between books and television. When I was writing this book, I thought that if that format existed, you could see how you could start writing differently - more visual than a book yet weightier than a television programme.
The digital divide?
Villages in India want better water rather than net access. Economic development is a product of a co-evolution of technology with social, political and organisational innovations. The notion you can push people ahead simply by giving them a computer is the same fallacy as saying go into Iraq, give them a book on a market economy and all will be fine!
Visit: www.johnkay.com and www.thetruthaboutmarkets.com
