The unexpected success of text (SMS) messaging, which in January saw the number of person-to-person texts sent in a month reach a mammoth 1.4bn, has recently been the solitary source of cheer for many in the mobile industry. Yet according to research commissioned by routing specialists Airslide at the recent GSM conference in Cannes, the industry has little confidence that the message is getting through.
Some 40% of those surveyed said they did not believe that all texts reached the intended recipient, and that the ability of networks to reliably deliver SMS was a serious issue. "Without reliable, consistent services to carry it, mobile commerce cannot go anywhere fast," says Marc Zionts, the chief executive of Airslide.
"As the applications utilising SMS proliferate, the situation is only going to get worse." Text messaging, though available from the early days of digital networks, took 10 years to catch the public's imagination. With the vast bulk of their revenues deriving from voice traffic, SMS was not a major factor in the network's plans. When the bug bit, few were prepared for the sudden onslaught of traffic.
With reports of the dumping of messages by overwhelmed networks, and memories of the over-hyped Wap still burning, many analysts agree that user confidence is critical to the technology's future. Paul Lee, director of mobile and wireless research at Deloitte Consulting, says texting's potential as a business application is "entirely limited by its reliability."
He adds: "Although the vast majority of communications arrive almost immediately, any applications that are time critical cannot rely on SMS. "If SMS was used for large-scale voting on a show like Big Brother, and all the SMS capacity is used up: engineers may not get summonsed, the logistics company might not become aware of a diverted load and services like the West Midlands police initiative to distribute text shoplifter warnings to retailers could grind to a halt."
Companies such as Airslide say networks should switch to a system where SMS messages are sent via separate, IP-based networks, while the continued roll-out of general packet radio service (GPRS) should improve reliability. The major service providers, meanwhile, are bringing their guns to bear upon the SMS phenomenon, with companies such as Orange claiming that they are pouring "considerable resources" into improving the breadth and standard of available services.
Given estimates from Andersen's Technology, Media and Communications division that the European market for enhanced mobile services will reach £11.7bn by 2006, their motivation for doing so is easily grasped. Many providers are pinning their hopes on enhanced messaging services to harness the popularity of SMS and iron out teething problems. Users in Japan have gone crazy for graphics and musical attachments, and Britons are expected to follow suit. Given that there are 40m SMS-capable handsets in circulation, and considering the reluctance of many users to gravitate towards new technologies, it is unlikely the humble text message will disappear overnight.
"There is an evolutionary path from SMS to enhanced messaging services, but these will complement the existing technology rather than replace it," says Simon Holmes from Logica Mobile Networks. "We see great potential for SMS to continue its success, but if operators intend to extend revenues from messaging services - quality of service remains a key issue to address."
