Four in 10 adults in this country do not have access to the internet. And the proportion that does is hardly growing. During the past two years, there has only been a two percentage point increase in those with access, from 60% to 62%, according quarterly aggregate findings of the Ipsos MORI Technology Tracker.
Three people in four who are 65 and over have no online access at all, either at home or at work, and of those in the lowest socio-economic class (DE) who are living only on state pension or other state support, only one person in 11 is on the net, as shown by the small +/- figures in the chart below.
The marketing media tell us that now some £2bn was spent online last year, a 41% increase over 2005, representing 11.4% of total advertising revenue, while a lesser proportion, 10.9%, went to national newspapers. This has been described as having a double whammy effect on national newspapers' fortunes, as younger people are not taking up newspaper readership automatically, leading to falling circulation, and with lower circulation, advertising revenues in national newspapers are reduced.
But it is not all gloom and doom for newspapers, radio and television. While there is a myth that online access is rapidly growing still, the empirical evidence both here and in the United States is that internet penetration has slowed down dramatically, and with some demographic groups, including 18-34 year old ABs, is falling back somewhat.
The rapid trajectory in the growth of the internet has about peaked for now, and while the proportion of those with access to the internet will grow, growth will be slow. It may take a generation for significant growth to take place, as people growing up with it or taking it on in middle age replace the now older generation.
In America, Park Associates' latest national Technology Scan survey indicates that the same thing is happening there, but with a somewhat higher base of two-thirds being online, but of those who are not, nearly half, 44%, say it is because they are not interested in anything on the net!
Some 70% of the disposable income in this country is held by the third of adults who are 55 and older, most of whom are not contributing to the rapid rise in buying goods and services over the web. Nor do they seem to be interested in doing so. The fastest growth is coming from some who are of the least interest to advertisers, those in DE socio-economic classification, 35-54, up some 7% over the past two years.
As well as in marketing, this has serious implications for politics, and serious implications for government policy. The polls tell us that grey power' has nearly four times the political punch as the youth vote, as they are twice as likely to vote, 75% to 37%, and nearly twice as many of them, 21% to 11%.
It is important for MPs to have a blog, to set up web sites, and to answer emails, and they've now voted themselves £10,000 each as a communication allowance, which many will spend on web-based activities. But it is also important for them to press the flesh, to appear on local radio and television and in the local newspapers, to have constituency newsletters, and to be seen and heard, because very many of the voters they count on to come out to support aren't on the internet, and many of those who are don't or can't log on or be bothered to google.
All of the increase in turnout at the last election, miserly as it was rising from just 59% two points to 61%, was in the 65+ age group, who represent 21% of the electorate, but 26% of those who voted. By comparison, turnout in the youngest age cohort actually fell, from 39% to 37%.
As for government policy, so much money and effort has gone into web-based access, yet most of the folks that government policy is designed to help can't be reached via the web, as they're not on the net and have no intention to be. Some local authorities are now spending hundreds of thousands of pounds of taxpayers' money on web TV output, competing with local newspapers, radio and television for audience and advertising.
