The empire is striking back. Large European businesses, who have the benefit of time and hindsight from watching the development of the internet in the US, feel they can avoid the onslaught on new online entrants in Europe.

But far from having developed antibodies to the internet threat, I fear that many firms in Europe may well be at risk from a far more virulent strain of the e-bug than their US counterparts. If so, then these businesses are far more at risk than they currently recognise.

Big businesses argue that they can copy or "benchmark" the most successful ideas from the US and roll them out in Europe. In fact, benchmarking has almost become business strategy these days as businessmen are keen to keep up with the e-Joneses.

However, Europeans are prone to draw the lessons they want to, irrespective of the context or economics. Take for example online banking. In America, those who bank and pay bills online are some 2.5 times more likely to stay with their bank than the average offline customer, and so improve banks' profitability.

Having read that headline many European banks are desperately launching competitive online current accounts to lure so-called loyal customers.

However, it is rarely that simple. The principal explanation for the incremental loyalty is that direct debits and standing orders don't exist in the US - and that online banking allows Americans to mimic online this convenience which we all already enjoy. So it is unlikely that online banking will have the same impact in Europe.

In fact, there is now clear evidence in Europe that the increasing wanderlust of the online consumer is reducing rather than increasing the value of current accounts as we get more savvy and put our spare cash into a high-rate deposit account. This is the opposite of what some bank managers are wishfully thinking may happen.

Second, many Europeans, like their American peers, want to have the benefits of the new economy without having to face up the changes. Take the example of Toys "R" Us in the United States. After the first e-Christmas in 1998 when eToys stole the show, Toys "R" Us decided to jump-start a major online business, and in April 1999 it partnered with the internet venture capitalists Benchmark Capital. The deal was heralded as the shape of things to come with its combination of an offline business with the best of the internet entrepreneurs.

However, by August 1999 the partnership had fallen apart, as Toys "R" Us had neither been prepared to move fast enough nor cannibalise its stores. To re-ignite its online dreams it has recently had to jump into bed with Amazon.

This tells a wider lesson: incumbents ought to be well placed to profit from the new economy as they have the static ingredients for success, such as their brand, trust and existing customer service. The issue for me is that given the pace of change, do they have the dynamic ingredients for success, such as committed management, preparedness to cannibalise themselves and take decisions fast?

Last, and perhaps the most important clue to how Europe might develop differently to the US, is that watching and learning from the USwill make Europe even more competitive. Three years ago we were probably some two to three years behind the US. But now the best online businesses rival their US peers: Tesco's online shopping rivals anything Peapod is doing; the FT.com rivals the better business news sites in the US. The overall competitive bar has been raised.

Worse still, the leading online businesses are seeking to leapfrog the US. This, combined with Europe's head start in mobile telephony, means that the smartest can seek to build business very much ahead of the US. However, this makes it all the more competitive for new entrants and incumbents alike. As a result, I believe it requires greater initiative and speed to profit from the internet in Europe than in the US.

This is not to say that there will not be success stories in Europe. Rather, that relying on US mythology will not be enough to support the development of a dynamic internet business.

When the history of the internet years in Europe is written, I wonder whether we will conclude: American hindsight did not mean European foresight.

• Huw van Steenis, e-Finance Strategist at JP Morgan, recently published Invasion of the Customer Snatchers: Online Finance in Europe.