Predictions are the quicksand of technology journalism. No sooner have you stumbled across the next big thing, than it has vanished in a quagmire of hype and is threatening to take you with it. But online gaming continues to hold its ground.
In fact, despite serving an audience with more spots than influence and a deficit of any decisive revenue streams, the online games industry continues to exceed expectations. According to Tamsin Aspinall, business development director at Elspa: "Online gaming has moved to the top of the business agenda and the (gaming) industry is gearing up to meet the challenges this new channel presents."
Elspa (Entertainment and Leisure Software Publishers) is organising a conference in February aimed at putting the profit into online network gaming services. From that we can gather there isn't any right now. Telewest would agree that extracting pennies from gaming portals is something of a black art. It has closed its 24-hour gaming service Bygames. But its decision to concentrate on "internet service provision" and the conference are only part of an analysis that sees online gaming taking its first strident steps into adulthood.
Counter Strike, the grand old dame of online FPS (first person shooters), was born in a bedroom four years ago and while the enhanced retail version, Condition Zero, is now back in the hands of Half Life engine originators Valve, it maintains its cult status. Valve has learnt the perils of letting bedroom-based coders "mod" (customise) its own online games based on its software. With Half Life 2 (HL 2), it intends to enrol an even greater number of net-enabled conscripts. Expect next generation graphics and an unrivalled physics engine on a PC near you around April.
Valve might have a money machine in HL 2, but other purveyors of the genre see its value in different terms. America's Army: Special Forces, free to download and commissioned by the US army as a recruitment tool, goes from strength to strength.
Its latest version - 2.0, released last month - has proved so successful that, with 2.1 million users, it is threatening to overwhelm the army's already substantial server bank.
America's Army is just one of hundreds of online titles that find connectivity through server browsing the domain GameSpy. Whether you are looking for a stranger to snipe at or a great example of lateral revenue creation, GameSpy is worth a visit. From its downloadable applet Ar cade, GameSpy Industries Inc is free to push any content it likes at action hungry players using its advanced server filters to whittle down to the preferred game, map and fastest ping (server response time).
However, a decent chunk of takings comes from sister site FilePlanet, which provides all the necessary maps, patches and demos. FilePlanet is to games demos what Apple.com is to movie trailers. And while you can wait in line to grab that essential file from a public server, there is the option to pay $59.95 (£35) for a year's queue jumping.
If you are taking more than a casual interest in the success of online gaming, you can't ignore the enthusiasm factor. Other than unbridled game loyalty, what could fuel another cottage industry - server realty?
Games server hosting outfits are springing up with the frequency of estate agents, and the popularity of their "rent-a-games-domain" services goes some way to explain why online gaming continues to bloom when the likes of Telewest are giving up on it. For around £100 a month, you can purchase you own little gamers haven in the shape of a 36 player-plus server for the game, cheat pack and voice hosting of your choice.
And let's not forget Sony and Microsoft who, having taken the top two spots in the console Olympics, are committed to the battle for online supremacy. Both will be at the conference and both feature in its All Formats Full Price Games Chart. At the time of writing, every title in the top five offered some form of online component.
It may be alchemy driving online gaming's unswerving advance, but as the titles in the top five bear witness, a little connectivity goes a long way.
1 Medal of Honor: Rising Sun
Its online heritage is legendary.
2 Need For Speed: Underground
Online stats and four player GameBoy Advance Link up.
3 Fifa 2004
Football Fusion allows the "fusing" of your management exploits in total club manager for single or multiplayer play.
4 Lord of The Rings: Return of The King
Cooperative multiplayer
5 Tony Hawk's Underground
Play online with you own face instead of Hawk's
Source: www.elspa.co.uk, week ending November 29
