Voting for the Oscars closed at 5pm PT on Thursday, meaning that the months-long campaigns of the favoured films have hung up their spurs: the red carpets have been rolled up, hospitality pavilions shut down, the PR minders putting their feet up until the Oscars ceremony itself takes place. The prefatory campaign – on-stage Q&As, special-screening paparazzi shoots, the string of lesser awards ceremonies – is over, and there is now nothing for the nominees to do but kick back and count the days.
Over the long haul of awards campaigning, which can reasonably be said to start with the near-simultaneous late summer film festivals in Venice, Telluride and Toronto and hits its peak in mid-February as Oscar voting opens, reading the runes has become a full-time activity across the entire film industry, and an absolute obsession for Hollywood insider publications such as Variety, the Hollywood Reporter and Deadline. Every ebb and flow of the process – a critics-awards nomination here, a trade-guild snub there – is endlessly picked over for what it might mean for the end result.
An Oscar is worth campaigning for. The “box office bounce” accounts for, on average, $39m (£29m) for a film that is nominated for and then wins the best picture award, depending on where it is in its theatrical release cycle. An Oscar can be career-changing for below-the-line crew, and life-changing for an actor or director. Studios can achieve bragging rights and occasionally, in the case of A24 with Moonlight or Neon with Parasite, radically alter an entire company profile.
At the most recent high profile ceremony, the Actor awards (which are given out by performers trade union the Screen Actors Guild), the surprise win for Sinners’ Michael B Jordan in the best actor category has had prominent commentators suggesting that momentum had swung decisively towards Sinners, the Ryan Coogler-directed vampire thriller that features Jordan in a double role. Having been nominated for a record 16 Oscars, Sinners has been locked in a long-running battle with Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another, a loose adaptation of Thomas Pynchon’s Vineland starring Leonardo Di Caprio as a former revolutionary with a teenage daughter, played by Chase Infiniti.
In an article headlined “Michael B Jordan’s Victory at the Actors Awards Sets [Sinners] Up for Oscars Glory”, Variety’s Clayton Davis talked up the movie’s prospects saying “the entire DNA of the Oscar season [had] shift[ed] beneath your feet”. Deadline’s Pete Hammond also thought the Actor awards had boosted Sinners’ chances, saying, “It is undeniable that Sinners caught a wave Sunday night with a chance to ride it all the way in.” And while considerably more equivocal overall, the Hollywood Reporter’s Scott Feinberg said that Sinners was likely to benefit from the Oscars preferential-ballot system.
Another regular feature of the Oscar race is the publication of the opinion of “anonymous voters”, which provides anecdotal evidence of how preferences may be shifting. Variety published a selection of anonymous opinions, suggesting that Sinners and One Battle After Another are being heavily favoured for the best picture award, Jessie Buckley appears a certainty for best actress and that despite his well-known disdain for the Oscars, Sean Penn is benefiting from a late surge in the best supporting actor category. Conversely, Timothée Chalamet’s chances of picking up the best actor Oscar for Marty Supreme seem to be receding in the wake of Robert Aramayo’s win for I Swear at the Baftas; with the drama about Tourette syndrome activist John Davidson not qualifying for the 2026 Oscars as the film is not yet released in the US, it leaves Jordan and DiCaprio as the main contenders.
While many pre-Oscar awards are considered a “bellwether”, the differences in voting pools make direct comparisons difficult. More than 122,000 members of Sag Aftra are eligible to vote for the Actor awards; there are reportedly just over 10,000 eligible voters in the Oscar race, although many overlap with other organisations, including the Producers Guild of America and Directors Guild of America, which hand out their own awards. The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (Ampas) which organises the Oscars has also recently instituted a system whereby only those who have seen all the nominated films can vote.
The nature of the Oscars ceremony itself is becoming clearer, with Ampas announcing a number of presenters including Robert Downey Jr, Paul Mescal and Gwyneth Paltrow, alongside previously announced host Conan O’Brien and fellow presenters Mikey Madison, Adrien Brody and Demi Moore.
Deadline has also reported that Barbra Streisand is in talks to participate in a tribute to actor and director Robert Redford, who died in September, as part of the Oscars’ celebrated In Memoriam section. The pair appeared in the hit 1973 romance The Way We Were. When Harry Met Sally stars Billy Crystal and Meg Ryan are also due to appear in an In Memoriam tribute to director Rob Reiner, who was found murdered in his home along with his wife, Michele Reiner, in December.
The Academy Awards ceremony takes place on 15 March at the Dolby theatre in Los Angeles.
