What's likely to be the biggest thing in mobile phones next year? 3G? Camera phones? Well a growing number of industry pundits are wagering that come summer 2004 the feature we will all be talking about is something called Push To Talk (PTT).
Already establishing itself in the USA PTT technology enables a mobile phone to moonlight as a walkie-talkie. Except that, unlike traditional walkie-talkies, which have a range of a few hundred feet, PTT-equipped phones work using internet protocol, so in theory users can contact someone no matter where in the world they are.
Motorola gave UK journalists a glimpse of how PTT might work at a demo in London earlier this week.
Users will need a special PTT phone. Nokia has already announced its model, the 5140, will be on sale in the spring while the biggest provider of PTT phones in the USA, Motorola, will also deliver handsets in early 2004. It is a given that all new phones produced by both manufacturers will have PTT by 2005.
When users switch the handset on they can find out which of the people on their PTT list (your friends, business colleagues, whoever) have their phones switched on and are ready to talk. The list doesn't have to be limited to individuals. Users can also set it up to address a group of people. The user then switches on a button on the handset and starts to talk.
If the user, and the person they are speaking to have chosen what has been termed the "barge option" their voice leaps straight out of their phone's speaker with no warning. Alternatively the phone can be set to ring or vibrate.
"Cultural differences come into play here," says Charlie Henderson, EMEA director of the business development group of Motorola's global telecoms solutions sector. "In North America 'barge' has been the most successful mode in the US, while in Canada the ring version of PTT has been more popular."
"Originally PTT was targeted in the US by network Nextel at small businesses like plumbers and building site workers. However as time as gone by Nextel and the other US networks offering PTT have realised there is a huge potential market among the under 30s," adds Henderson.
In particular the group facility has proved very popular. There are countless potential applications from groups of shoppers discussing their latest purchases, to sports fans keeping each other up to date on the latest news.
The presence element of PTT, which lets users know if a phone is accessible, will also appeal to parents who will be able to instantly know if their child is available to speak to them.
Another major plus of PTT is that as it uses Internet Protocol it is very cheap - in the US subscribers pay on average $20 a month for unlimited usage of PTT.
Handset manufacturers are very keen on the concept, seeing it as providing another reason for users to upgrade their handsets.
Nokia's first PTT phone is a tough, active handset featuring shock absorption and weatherproof facilities. "It highlights where PTT will go first," says the company's UK communications director Mark Squires. "To small businesses like plumbers and couriers and also to those who love action sports like skateboarders and skiers."
While it sounds as if it will have huge potential, not everyone in Europe is convinced PTT is the killer application your mobile, has been waiting for.
"One of the reason it has been relatively successful in the US is that they don't really have a culture of text messaging" argues Simon Edwards, marketing director of telecoms software vendor Intervoice.
"So some of the uses for PTT are taken care of in Europe by texting. Also Britons are a bit less inclined to talk pleasantries than Americans so texting is more in tune with our culture."
There are other obstacles to PTT's success that are less cultural and more to do with the reticence of the networks to embrace PTT. "If PTT was as successful as it was in is in the US it would certainly eat in to the networks' revenue on both voice and text calls," admits Nokia Networks business development director Tapio Heikkila.
Then there is the very thorny issue of roaming. If global agreements were set up there is no technological reason why PTT couldn't step across national boundaries and expensive international calls would be a thing of the past.
Networks have also got to work out pricing structures for PTT. Analysts Steve Griffin and Jurgen Wittkopp from the PA Consulting Group suggest that PTT gives network the opportunity to once again charge consumers for the amount they use the service.
Although this may be hard for the networks to justify, especially as a flat monthly fee as used by US networks has proved set the template.
Finally there's the issue of bandwidth. "PTT will take up bandwidth of network GPRS networks that operators have currently set aside for business users sending data and consumers sending photos and downloading games," adds Nokia's Mark Squires.
"There simply isn't the bandwidth available for it take off and become massive for consumers overnight. The key though will be the arrival of 3G. With that extra bandwidth there is aplenty of space for PTT to establish itself."
So it is not surprising it has taken so long for the networks to embrace PTT. No UK networks have currently announced launches for a service, but it is expected at least one UK network will offer PTT in the spring.
Yet for those, including some people from networks, who have written PTT's obituary before it even arrives, a telecoms analyst who wishes to remains anonymous has two words - text messaging. "No one had an inkling how large sending SMSes would become. I believe that because of its ease of use and immediacy we will see a repeat of that scenario with PTT."
