The end of July means the start of the awards season: it's when the two big autumn film festivals – Venice and Toronto – start to announce their programmes, and when we get a first look at those films that'll be on everyone's radar next spring. Here are our top 50 Oscar tips, ranked in order. Let us know what you think, and what we've left out (we'll deal with documentary and foreign language films separately)
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, the big-screen version of John le Carré cold war thriller, was always going to be hotly-anticipated. Just look at that cast: Benedict Cumberbatch, Ciaran Hinds, Colin Firth, Gary Oldman, Mark Strong, Simon McBurney, Tom Hardy. But don't be fooled – this ain't no open-and-shut thesp ensemble number; it's directed by Tomas Alfredson, the man behind the original Swedish Let the Right One In. The trailer was the clincher that means it takes our top spot: a masterclass in appetite-whetting. It's out in the UK on 16 September; a premiere at Venice (end of August) or, more likely, Toronto (second week of September) should give it the best berth possiblePhotograph: PRMy Week with Marilyn can't fail to shimmy off without a few acting nods: not only does it star Michelle Williams as Monroe, with Kenneth Branagh as Laurence Olivier, Julia Ormond as Vivien Leigh, Dougray Scott as Arthur Miller, Judi Dench as Sybil Thorndike, Derek Jacobi as Owen Morshead, etc, it's also being backed by Harvey Weinstein. Oscar loves a bit of self-reverence and this adaptation of the Colin Clark (to be played by Eddie Redmayne) memoir about his time minding Monroe while she shot Prince and the Showgirl, looks to have it by the bucketloadPhotograph: PRRumour had it that Alexander Payne (Sideways, Election) wanted his new film, The Descendants, to premiere in Cannes in May (as did About Schmidt). But the studio refused, preferring to launch at the more awards-friendly autumn festivals (UK release is on 20 January). Clooney stars as a land baron trying to reconnect with his two daughters after his wife suffers a boating accident; there's an eclectic supporting cast including Judy Greer, Beau Bridges and Matthew Lillard. The buzz on this one has been noisy since its inceptionPhotograph: PRMeryl Streep plays Margaret Thatcher in The Iron Lady, a serio-comic biopic about the former British PM. It's directed by Mamma Mia's Phyllida Lloyd with a release date that's perfectly cocked and loaded for awards. Streep, surely, will bag a nomination, although controversy could yet unseat the film's Oscar campaign. Even in her dotage, Thatcher remains a deeply divisive figure. Her life and times is like nitroglycerin in the hands of all but the most careful and astute director. Abi Morgan's script will be examined with especial scrutiny (Morgan has also scripted BBC drama The Hour, as well as Steve McQueen's Shame, which comes later in our list)Photograph: PRThe Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. The Girl films have plenty of awards form already – including a Bafta for best foreign film – and they were in Swedish. Now a major Oscar-bait film-maker in the shape of David Fincher is masterminding the Hollywood version, Tattoo is going into the awards season with its held held very high. Daniel Craig, handsomely brooding, as the journalist/sleuth won't hurt either. Its planned release date – Dec 21 in the US, Dec 26 in the UK – show it's being aimed at the Oscars like a cinematic RPG. Fincher will still be sore The Social Network got crushed by The King's Speech last year: he'll be pinning a lot of hopes on this onePhotograph: PRThe Ides of March. A very strong contender this, given the additional boost of the opening screening at the Venice film festival. George Clooney goes quadruple-hyphenate as director-writer-producer-star of this drama about political campaigning, very loosely based on Howard Dean's attempt to become the Democrat candidate in 2004. Clooney is one of the few people who can pull off Hollywood politics; he'll be hoping to repeat, if not better, Good Night and Good LuckPhotograph: PRWar Horse is awards-season catnip: a hit book, a hit play, Lee Hall and Richard Curtis in the script department, and Steven Spielberg in "classy" mode calling the shots. In fact, Spielberg likes to alternate eye-candy like Tintin with something weighty, so he'll no doubt expend as much energy as possible in making War Horse up to Saving Private Ryan or Schindler's List standard. With late Dec/early Jan release planned, this like The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, is charging directly at Oscar contentionPhotograph: PRJ Edgar. Leonardo DiCaprio plus Clint Eastwood plus 40s threads says that this biopic of FBI director J Edgar Hoover is looking to throw its weight around. DiCaprio is making a habit of period movies: Shutter Island, Revolutionary Road and The Aviator were all serious heavyweights, and the last time Eastwood went American retro, Changeling scored an Oscar nom for its lead Angelina Jolie. The main danger? This could turn out like Public Enemies, modish but lacking impact. Still, it's screenwriter, Dustin Lance Black, did the business with MilkPhotograph: On Location News / Rex FeaturesCarnage. The talent parade for this screen adaptation of Yasmin Reza's hit play is pure awards gravy: the director (Roman Polanski) and three of the four lead actors have already won Oscars. It's the story of two sets of parents who meet up to discuss a violent incident involving their children; plenty of room, therefore, for thespian histrionics. But it may follow in the tracks of Closer, another stage-originating four-hander, that proved underwhelming in the awards stakesPhotograph: PRThe Tree of Life. The rare fruit that is a Terrence Malick film has already brought home the awards bacon, in the shape of the Palme d'Or at Cannes. The chances are, though, that Malick's ambitious, existential film won't carry much momentum on until next year's awards season – call it peaking early. But The Pianist managed to scoop both the Cannes Palme and major Oscars in 2002, so it's not impossible. But Tree is a much tougher propositionPhotograph: PRExtremely Loud and Incredibly Close. Jonathan Safran Foer's post-9/11 fantasy novel gets a reworking from Stephen Daldry, who received a directing nomination for his last feature, 2008's The Hours. Tom Hanks and Sandra Bullock star in a story that sees a nine-year-old boy (Thomas Horn in his feature debut, pictured above on set with Bullock) searching New York for a lock that will take a key that belonged to his father, who died in the attacks on the twin towers. Hanks (two time winner, three time nominee) and Bullock (winner in 2010 for The Blind Side) have plenty of Oscar glory between them, so may not take a statue home. James Gandolfini is probably due a nom nod, and Safran Foer might join him for his screenplayPhotograph: Erik Pendzich/Rex / Rex FeaturesYoung Adult. Director Jason Reitman (Thank You For Smoking, Juno, Up in the Air) takes another shot at analysing first world problems with a drama about a recently divorced author (Charlize Theron) who returns to her home town in an attempt to woo a married ex-boyfriend. Theron and writer Diablo Cody (pictured above with Reitman and Juno star Ellen Page) already have an Oscar apiece for Monster and Juno respectively. Reitman, with two directing nominations but no award, must be itching to join themPhotograph: Mario Anzuoni/ReutersThe historic shortage of decent women's roles means that this unlikely film is in with a shout – at least in the categories that can feature lead actor Glenn Close (here pictured with Jodie Foster and Mel Gibson in 2002; official stills aren't yet out). She plays the titular Albert Nobbs, a butler in 19th century Ireland who is in fact a woman in disguise. Based on a story by Irish writer George Moore, Nobbs is Close's pet project, and one she's been trying to get off the ground ever since appearing in a stage adaptation in 1992. Awards action, you suspect, would be a just rewardPhotograph: PRA Dangerous Method is a tale of warring psychoanalysts, directed by David Cronenberg and starring Viggo Mortensen; a film that puts A History of Violence on the couch. Mortensen plays Freud while Michael Fassbender plays Jung. Both are at loggerheads over the beautiful, troubled Sabina Spielrein (Keira Knightley). It could bag nominations for the acting, directing and Christopher Hampton's adapted screenplay. But will the subject matter prove too dour and cerebral for Academy voters? Or might the treatment even be a touch too Carry on …?Photograph: PRMartin Scorsese is always there and thereabouts when it comes to awards season: if nothing else, the man knows how to showcase a grandstanding performance from a major-league actor (in this case Sacha Baron Cohen). Whether Hugo will repeat the trick is another matter; are we ready for the poet of middle-aged male angst to go all Harry Potter. But if it all comes together, we could be seeing a newly bankable, family-friendly Marty that awards-voters can clasp to their collective bosomPhotograph: PRThe Deep Blue Sea: not a remake of Renny Harlin's giant-shark cult classic, but the new one from Terence Davies that might – just might – make waves in the immensely-civilised, uptight-Brit mini genre so beloved by awards-givers. The source material is Terence Rattigan's 1952 play about a woman who leaves her husband, a judge, for her RAF-pilot lover; Rachel Weisz is looking at best actress noms in the lead, while Tom Hiddleston and stage legend Simon Russell Beale, as the pilot and judge respectively, will no doubt be looking at best supportsPhotograph: PRThe Rum Diary. It's been long in the making, but finally here: the film version of the Hunter S Thompson novel about an American journalist boozing it up in Puerto Rico. Johnny Depp, who produces and stars, must be hoping for a signature role (but that didn't exactly work out for Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas). But maybe the long-awaited return of Bruce (Withnail & I) Robinson to the director's chair (his first since the disastrous Jennifer Eight in 1992) will trigger some sentimental gongsPhotograph: PRAnother vaguely delayed project is Walter Salles's take on the Jack Kerouac classic. Should On the Road make it into cinemas before the voting deadlines end, there could be the jangle of gongs for Salles, or cast members Kirsten Dunst, Kristen Stewart, Garrett Hedlund and Sam RileyPhotograph: PRW.E. Who'd have thunk it? Madonna's second directorial effort is no longer being talked about as the most ridiculous film of the decade but, after being snapped up by the Weinsteins, a perfectly respectable, marketable motion picture. And what with the success of The King's Speech, there's no reason why a film about Edward VIII and Wallis Simpson (played by rising star Andrea Riseborough) shouldn't have a chance come Oscar time. Unless it's terrible, of coursePhotograph: PRThe Whistleblower. A well-meaning slice of Hollywood activism that may well adopt what we might call the Blood Diamond position. Rachel Weisz plays a UN monitor who reports that military contractors are running sex-traffic operations from Bosnia, and gets hammered legally as a result. Heavy it may sound, but Blood Diamond scored five Oscar noms, so keep your eye on this onePhotograph: Andrei Alexandru/PRThe Help. A 1960s period piece on race relations in small-town Mississippi. Director Tate Taylor's folksy morality tale could play well with the voters who nominated The Color Purple for 11 Oscars back in 1985. Based on a best-selling book by Kathryn Stockett, The Help follows three women – two black maids working in white households and a white college graduate – as they attempt to challenge conventional attitudes to race and place in southern society. Viola Davis, previously nominated for her performance in Doubt (2008), is the one to watch here. But Emma Stone and the ubiquitous Jessica Chastain also featurePhotograph: PRLike Crazy. LA boy Anton Yelchin and London-based girl Felicity Jones weather the dips and highs of a long distance relationship in this low budget romantic drama. So far, so mumblecore. But then there's the Grand Jury prize it picked up at Sundance, and the bidding war that followed (Paramount won out to the tune of $4 million). And the critical acclaim for Jones's prize-winning performance. With the right promo, the Academy could well fall for itPhotograph: PRA classy cast, led by Brad Pitt and Philip Seymour Hoffman, and a last-minute script rewrite by Aaron Sorkin, would seem to put this baseball movie in with a shout. Moneyball is the story of the Oakland Athletics, a financially-challenged outfit who used smart new analysis tools to put together division-winning teams in the early 2000s. Sports movies don't tend to do all that well awards-wise, but you never know: this could be Million Dollar Baby all over againPhotograph: PRCoriolanus. A high-minded contender, this, and very much reliant on its director-star Ralph Fiennes. An adaptation of one of Shakespeare's trickiest plays given a Balkan war setting, Coriolanus isn't exactly the most likeable of the Bard's offerings. Fiennes, though, is everyone's idea of an acting grandee, and will reap the respect that entails. Surely he'll get some noms, but actual wins may be just out of reachPhotograph: PRShame, the new one from Steve (Hunger) McQueen, has no release date pencilled in yet (and no publicity stills either; this is an on-set snap), but the chances of this erotic vehicle for Michael Fassbender finding its way into the autumn festival programme seem high. Carey Mulligan co-stars as his sisterPhotograph: Startraks Photo / Rex FeaturesWe Need to Talk About Kevin. Caused a stir at Cannes and will likely pick up at least a best actress nomination for Tilda Swinton, who dominates as the mother of a teenage mass murderer struggling to come to terms with her son's crime. Could the central theme – that children can be resented more than they're loved – be too out there for the Academy? On the other hand, the huge success of soft-centred The King's Speech last year may mean Oscar are looking for something spikier this year. If so, director Lynne Ramsey and writing partner Rory Kinnear should get a nod for their adaptation of Lionel Shriver's book, while John C Reilly's second nomination (his first was for best supporting actor Chicago in 2002) is long overduePhotograph: PRContagion. Steven Soderbergh keeps on making movies in spite of himself and even if he is winding down, Contagion – a disaster movie with a mighty ensemble cast (including Matt Damon, Kate Winslet, Jude Law, Marion Cotillard, Gwyneth Paltrow and Laurence Fishburne) – suggests he's not going quietly. Focusing on an international team of doctors tasked with containing a viral outbreak, Soderbergh's ambitious action-thriller could see its chances of earning nominations in the acting categories diluted by the sheer weight of talent involved. Look out for writer Scott Z Burn, though. He's worked with Soderbergh (The Informant!) and Damon (The Bourne Ultimatum) before and could catch a nominationPhotograph: PRBeginners. Mike Mills' film about an elderly man who decides to come out is not the sort of oddball fare that is normally awards-fodder – but its 81-year-old star Christopher Plummer has been having something of a renaissance of late, and could well find himself ushered onto the stage to pick up various best supporting actor gongs. The Last Station got him an Oscar nom; he might go one better this timePhotograph: PRMartha Marcy May Marlene – this year's Winter's Bone? Elizabeth Olsen, younger sister of Mary-Kate and Ashley, shines as Martha, a terrified young woman ensconced in her older sister's house after escaping from a sinister commune. Olsen is excellent, both as damaged, wary Martha and the naive Marcy May (the alter ego given to her by the sect), but unlikely to be nominated. First-time writer/director Sean Durkin (who won the director's prize at Sundance and executive produced the similarly eerie Two Gates of Sleep last year) could be among the original screenplay contendersPhotograph: PRThe Artist is a joker in the pack. Is this French-made homage to cinema's early days a niche 'foreign-language' contender (it is almost entirely silent) or a mainstream best film hopeful? Michel Hazanavicius's comedy was the surprise hit at the Cannes film festival. Its star Jean Dujardin picked up the best actor award, while the Weinsteins snapped up the distribution rights in the UK, US and Australia. They're clearly banking on a break-out, blockbuster success. But might The Artist have peaked too early for awards season?Photograph: PRDrive. Already trailing a best director award for Nicolas Winding Refn from Cannes, this atmospherically-shot story, adapted from James Sallis novelette, about a stuntman who moonlights as a getaway driver could be a dark horse. Ryan Gosling, Oscar-nominated back in 2007 for Half Nelson, looks like a strong bet for a gong or two, especially after garnering lots of praise for Blue Valentine. But might he be competing against himself in The Ides of March? Photograph: PRWoody Allen's most profitable film ever hasn't had critics completely swooning, but Midnight in Paris should still pick up a screenwriting nod, even – whisper it – one for best picture. Owen Wilson plays the wannabe novelist who steps back in time and starts carousing with the likes of Hemingway and FitzgeraldPhotograph: PRThe Woman in Black. We've got a good feeling about this. An adaptation of Susan Hill's cod-Victorian ghost story, with a post-Potter Daniel Radcliffe in the lead role, and James (Eden Lake) Watkins in the director's chair. Genre pieces don't often burn up the awards, but the period setting ought to help nail down some Baftas, at the very leastPhotograph: PRJane Eyre. Once Hollywood's starlet-du-jour Mia Wasikowska signed up to this adaptation of Charlotte Brontë’s novel, it immediately shot into the award-bait category. And with Michael Fassbender opposite her, as the mysterious Mr Rochester, there's potential for both to make their major-gong breakthrough. But the early release (March 2011 in the US; we're waiting until the autumn over here) says that there's little confidence in it building enough momentum to win anythingPhotograph: PRHaywire. Mixed martial arts pro and former American Gladiator Gina Carano plays a ex-black ops soldier on the run from the unit she used to work for. Michael Fassbender, Channing Tatum, Ewan McGregor and Antonio Banderas star as the team that must bring her in (and as the credible acting talent who could raise this above a standard Bourne-esque stomp 'n thump). The trailer – a melee of gunplay, scowling and acrobatic fisticuffs – suggests that director Steven Soderbergh (whose last film, The Last Time I Saw Michael Gregg, was an improvised comedy based on a theatre company staging a Chekov play) is back at the popcorn counter. Oscar is likely to find this Salt-y rather than sweetPhotograph: PRIt's telling that Lost creator JJ Abrams is still known as Lost creator JJ Abrams, despite the huge box office success of Cloverfield (which he produced) and his skilful handling of the Star Trek franchise reboot. Super 8 – developed in partnership with Steven Spielberg – marks Abrams's first directorial effort since the end of the TV show and, commercially at least, the signs look good – it's made $123 million since its US release last month. If big bucks can't shift the millstone, an Oscar or two might, but it's hard to see where Abrams can earn them. A serviceable alien adventure in the vein of – whisper it – M Night Shyamalan, Super 8 could pick up some technical awards, but it's super young cast and Abrams's propensity for biff-bang-pow probably exclude it from the high profile categoriesPhotograph: PRLars von Trier is unlikely to get feted this season, but the star of Melancholia, Kirsten Dunst, has already won acclaim for her performance as a depressive bride contemplating the end of the world (not to mention her savoir faire during the Hitler-gate press conference). The special effects should be in with a shot, tooPhotograph: PRTake Shelter. A small scale indie whose best chance would be to take the quirk slot previously occupied by the likes of Winter's Bone or Frozen River. The cast will no doubt help: Michael Shannon (Oscar nommed for Revolutionary Road) and Jessica Chastain (see The Debt) might conceivably propel this story about a family beset by the father's mental illness into contentionPhotograph: PRNatural Selection has just locked down a distribution deal in the US through The Cinema Guild; and rumour has it it may have an airing in the UK at October's London film festival. This is great news: Robbie Pickering's debut, which rightly swept the board at this year's SXSW, is so brilliantly shot, scripted and acted that once seen, it'll be hard to ignore. An additional boost comes from the cheerleading of Roger Ebert, who served on the SXSW jury, then selected it for pride of place at his own annual shindig, EbertfestPhotograph: PRThe Myth of the American Sleepover. A group of teens flirt and fight their way through a long summer night in the suburbs of Detroit. Think Kids but with everything vital, malicious and degrading replaced with hugs. It won a jury prize at SXSW, but with absolutely no star power (some of the cast are first-timers) and an amateur crew, this is an amiable no-hoper for every category – bar a maybe-just-maybe nomination in best original screenplay for writer/director David Robert MitchellPhotograph: PRPaddy Considine's directorial debut is already firmly established on the awards circuit, thanks to three nods at Sundance earlier this year. A traumatic account of family life, Tyrannosaur needs to make waves at the US box office to be in with a shot of anything bigger than a best British film BaftaPhotograph: PRWord on Andrea Arnold's Wuthering Heights has gone slightly quiet of late. But unless the Fish Tank director has settled on a Berlin premiere next spring, hope remains that her revisionist take (starring Nichola Burley and James Howson, pictured above) will be out, and essential viewing, this autumnPhotograph: Rex FeaturesThe Thing. This is the third version – after the Howard Hawks/Christian Nyby 1951 original, and John Carpenter's 1982 remake – of the Antarctic-set creature feature. Hard to tell, at this distance, whether this will have the required class to put it into major awards contention; the presence of Joel (Animal Kingdom) Edgerton is, at this stage, the most eye-catching elementPhotograph: PRHalf oafish comedy, half cancer diary – it's hard to set the odds on this one. From Brick to Inception, 50/50 lead Joseph Gordon-Levitt has proved himself a friend of Hollywood's art crowd and the money men both. He's a good bet for a best actor nomination eventually, but whether this is the film to provide it is debatable. Oscar likes its illnesses serious (Philadelphia, Rain Man, A Beautiful Mind), not stoner (Seth Rogen is on board as Gordon-Levitt's best mate). Still, at least they renamed the thing – it's tough to imagine anyone announcing: 'And the Oscar goes to … I'm With Cancer'Photograph: PRComedies never do fantastically well when it comes to gongs – funny is as funny does. As the femme answer to The Hangover, Bridesmaids can't be confident: the boys' film only scored a Bafta nom for its script, and no Oscar attention at all. But Kristen Wiig has got a lot of friends out there, and the rarity value of a women's gross-out comedy ought to earn it a little more attentionPhotograph: PRThe Debt. Hardly anything has been said about John Madden's film since it premiered at Toronto almost a year ago; so maybe the buzz it was presumably hoping for failed to materialise. A thriller about retired Mossad agents getting back in the game, its best hope for award action would seem to be Jessica Chastain, newly acclaimed after The Tree of Life. But it's still an outsiderPhotograph: PRThe Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn. Steven Spielberg's autumn biggie, doing the living-cartoon job on Hergé's much-loved boy detective. No doubt it'll be a massive commercial success, but in truth these sort of films don't tend to do all that well come awards time, with the human qualities awarders tend to go for being overwhelmed by all that spectacle. But with Peter Jackson's WETA behind the effects, expect lots of technical-category nomsPhotograph: PRThis Must Be The Place, Paulo Sorrentino's goth odyssey curio failed to capture Cannes' imagination in the way many imagined. But to not offer Sean Penn an acting nod for his giggling, washed-up Robert Smith-alike might be seen as a snub too far. Penn, after all, is a recent darling of Academy voters, having picked up Oscars for both Mystic River and MilkPhotograph: PRDream House will go down in showbiz history as the film Daniel Craig and Rachel Weisz became a couple while making, and its producers are no doubt punching the air for the unexpected Bogie-Bacall style windfall. Without them, this might have come off as just another Amityville Horror knock-off; with them, indubitably classy performers both, it could be a creepy classic. But it has to be very good to challengePhotograph: PRWe Bought a Zoo. With Spielberg off chasing Tintin into the realms of full-on CG fantasy, fellow dreamer Cameron Crowe has a clear run at the embellished real-life story spot. Based on author Benjamin Mee's experience of renovating Dartmoor zoo in order to save the animals from the chop, all We Bought A Zoo needs is something shiny to distract the notoriously sentimental Academy voters from the squawking, mucky reality of animal husbandry. His name? Matt Damon – pictured here on a horse in True Grit as stills are not yet available Photograph: PRPhotograph: guardian.co.uk
